:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2023 Dec 11 0118 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
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# # Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
# Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
04 - 10 December 2023

Solar activity ranged from low to high levels this period with
Regions 3511 (S22, L=216, class/area=Fsi/180 on 09 Dec) and 3513
(N19, L=220, class/area=Eai/220 on 10 Dec) being the primary sources
of flare activity. The largest event observed was an M5.4/1b flare
(R2/Moderate) at 08/2307 UTC from Region 3511. In addition to the
M5.5 event, Region 3511 produced four R1 (Minor) events over 08-10
Dec. Region 3513 produced five R1 (Minor) events over 05-06 Dec.
Despite the flare activity and a number of filament eruptions
observed throughout the week, no Earth-directed CMEs were detected.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels 08-09 Dec, with normal to moderate levels observed on
04-07 and 10 Dec.

Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels over
04-06 Dec due to a combination of weak CME (from 01 Dec) influences
on 04-05 Dec and negative polarity CH HSS influences on 05-06 Dec.
Quiet conditions and a background solar wind environment prevailed
over 07-10 Dec.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
11 December - 06 January 2024

Solar activity is likely to reach moderate to high levels on 11-12
Dec due to the flare potential of Regions 3511 and 3513. Solar
activity is expected to be low with a chance for R1-R2
(Minor-Moderate) flare events throughout the remainder of the
outlook period.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
expected to be at normal to moderate levels throughout the period.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be quiet and unsettled
over 11-14 Dec due to positive polarity CH HSS influences. Quiet to
unsettled levels are expected over 15-20 Dec, with active conditions
likely on 18 Dec and G1 (Minor) storms likely on 19 Dec, due to
positive polarity CH HSS influences. G1 (Minor) storms are likely on
22 Dec, with active conditions likely on 23 Dec, due to positive
polarity CH HSS effects. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected on
30 Dec-02 Jan, with active conditions likely on 01 Jan, due to
negative polarity CH HSS influences. Quiet levels and background
solar wind conditions are expected to prevail throughout the
remainder of the period.